This section of the website is to show that the spread firms aren't always right and sometimes their initial spreads can be way off the mark. The skill is to identify when you think they have made a serious misjudgement and go with your hunch.
These 'misjudgements' aren't usually on the normal markets that are offered but normally one of the special bets which they offer from time to time on big events - World Cups, FA Cups, Golf Majors etc. You would think that with all of the information that they have to hand they wouldn't make mistakes, but they DO SOMETIMES HAPPEN!
One of our favourites was a bet in the 1999 FA Cup final Aston Villa v Chelsea. One of the 'Specials' offered by Sporting Index that day was a bet called
CALAMITY JAMES - Spread 48 -52
The index was based purely on David James and played on the fact that he was prone to errors! Points were awarded as follows:
10pts each goal conceded. 10pts if he conceded a goal through his legs. 5 pts each time he saved with his hands but didn't catch the ball. 10pts each time he touched the ball outside the area. 50pts if he conceded 4 goals or more.
WHAT A BET!! There was 1 part of this bet that was a licence to print money and made all of the other parts pretty irrelevant. Anybody who identified it before the game would make a fortune. David James very rarely kicked the ball straight from his hands. He would roll the ball OUT OF THE AREA and then kick it. 10pts everytime he did this!! In addition he was responsible for all free kicks in Villa's defensive third of the pitch. Therefore every Chelsea offside, invariably James would take the kick - 10pts when this kick was outside the area!!
There were no minus points in this bet, it was simply a totting up process. James could have a good game and you'd still make money by buying the index. If he had a bad game you'd make more!
As it happened, you were just about level after 10 minutes of the game if you had brought at 52. FIVE TIMES in the first 10 minutes James picked up the ball, rolled it outside the area and booted it upfield - 50pts!! This carried on throughout the game, plus he let in a couple of goals (one through his legs), parried a couple of saves with his hands and took most of the free kicks in his half. This was probably the most enjoyable FA Cup final that we have ever witnessed! The index finished at 280! A whopping 228 points profit with very little risk. FANTASTIC!
We think that Sporting Index made the mistake by forgetting/not realising that James took his kicks in the way described above and set the index based on James possibly acting as a sweeper on the odd occasion and steaming out of his area to break down a Chelsea attack. WOW. Big mistake to make, unless of course a number of punters decided to sell the index. OUCH! |
A huge mistake was made by Sporting Index in the Cricket World Cup of 1999 and it is rumoured cost them in excess of £500,000! The bet was on the total number of wides in the tournament and is described below:
TOURNAMENT WIDES - Spread 250 - 270
The spread was set and from the first morning of trading punters piled in, buying the index. Steadily Sporting kept raising the index to attract some sellers, but buyers continued to pile in. Eventually the Index had reached 495 - 515 even before a ball had been bowled! Sporting Index had grossly underestimated the market and were hugely exposed.
Punters were buying for several reasons:
1. It was rumoured that the new white ball was more difficult for bowlers to control.
2. The umpires were going to be much more strict than usual
3. The poor sides had weak bowlers who would be unable to avoid conceding wides
4. The Racing Post ran a feature advising on the above 3 facts and made this bet a serious BUY recommendation
In the event, the tournament was exactly as the Racing Post had predicted. Wides rocketed throughout the tournament and finished at a huge 979! Buyers were counting massive profits and Sporting nursing some severe losses. |
ZINEDINE ZIDANE GOAL MINUTES - ENGLAND v FRANCE - EURO 2004
Not one of our bets before we explain!
A punter at Sporting Index brought Zidane Goal Minutes before the England v France game at 11 for £50 per point. Any goal that Zidane scored he would get 1pt for every minute of the goal time.
Unless you were on Mars, you would know that Zidane scored 2 goals - both in the 90th minute = 180 points.
So - in the 89th minute the punter was 11x £50 down = £550. Three minutes later he had 180 points in the bank!! He therefore ended up winning 180 - 11 = 169pts x £50 = £8450. Wow - what a swing!! Perhaps not a fab bet, but it shows how - with spread betting - one minute you can be losing and the next you're winning quite handsomely. |
We have plenty of other examples of 'Fab Past Bets' which we'll post on here as we continue to update the site. If you have any examples of your own, please email them to us and we'll be delighted to publish them.
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