So Exactly Who Is The 'Field' And How Do I Narrow Them Down?
The Premiership goalscorers race is the perfect opportunity to have an interest throughout the football season. With some careful research you should be able to narrow down the field to three or four real contenders.
There are several factors and variables that you must take into account before making your choice...
Will they play enough games?
One goal every two games is a strike rate for which most forwards would give their baby Bentleys -so if you want to end the season as top scorer, then you're going to have to play in at least 34 of the 38 scheduled games.
Rafa Benitez's much-publicized 'rotation system' usually puts the mockers on any Liverpool player from figuring at the top of the goalscoring charts -if you don't believe me then just ask Kuyt, Crouch and Bellamy if they would put their (hefty) week's wages on definitely starting at 3pm on any given Saturday. No wonder that Craig Bellamy decided to move into his own spotlight down at West Ham -but if you thought that meant that Dirk Kuyt (12 goals last season) would suddenly surge up the charts, enter Spanish recruit Fernando Torres to spoil the Dutchman's fun. The Anfield trio may all end up with about a dozen goals each this term.
But it's not only the rotation system that prevents a player from scoring -it can also be the dreaded injuries. Newcastle and England striker Michael Owen has a phenomenal record of better than one goal every two games, but over the last couple of season his appearances for both club and country have been severely restricted
And if a striker is out of form, then it stands to reason that not only are they not going to be scoring -then they my not be in the starting eleven. When Andreiy Shevchenko moved to then champions Chelsea it looked like a marriage made in football heaven -he managed a mere 4 league goals last season in 30 games.
So How Many Will They Have to Score?
The goalscoring machine that is Thierry Henry scored 24 + goals for five consecutive seasons between 01-02 and 05-06, winning four Golden Boots in the process -had he not been beset by injury last season he may have repeated the feat. But the eventual winner was Chelsea 's Didier Drogba with a mere 20 -the lowest total in almost a decade. Whilst the champions Man Utd scored an impressive 83 league goals, their goals were spread around between the whole front line of Ronaldo, Rooney, Saha, Scholes and Giggs.
The wonderfully impressive Cristiano Ronaldo had a real breakout season, finding the net 17 times in the league. No doubt he will be a real force in Man Utd's title challenge again this season, but this time round defenders will be watching him very closely and he may have trouble getting the ball away from new signing Carlos Tevez...
A player reaching 25 goals should claim at least a share of the Golden Boot.
Do They Have The Opportunity To Score Goals?
In order to score lots of goals you have to create lots of chances (remember back in 1998 when Glen Hoddle remarked that Andy Cole required five chances to convert one?), well most of the Premiership's top marksmen have a goal every 2.5 games or better record.
The team around a striker will create many of those chances, so if a side plays with wingers (or at least midfielders who can cross the ball) then the opportunities will be plentiful. Benni McCarthy enjoyed the benefit of genuine wide men Bentley and Pedersen last season and reaped the rewards with a stunning 19 league goals for Blackburn Rovers. Another factor in McCarthy's excellent return was his elevation to penalty-taker on New Year's Day -this new responsibility would yield a further four goals for the South African during the remaining games. Being a team's free-kick specialist or penalty taker can be worth up to ten goals a season!
The Clubs And Their Contenders
Manchester United -Carlos Tevez (20/1 Coral)
Only once since the inception of the Premiership back in 1992 has a United player finished as sole top scorer -when the prolific Van Nistelroy netted 25 times in 02-03.
Considering that they have won the title 9 times and finished second 3 times during that period, it pays homage to the Old Trafford club's strength in depth and teamwork.
Enter Carlos Tevez, the Argentinean who single-handedly kept West Ham in the top flight with 6 goals in the last 10 games of last season. Will the goals yet again be spread throughout the team or will Ronaldo and new recruit Nani concentrate their efforts as wingers on supplying the gifted Tevez? This man has more in common with Gary Lineker than 'FA Cup' ears -expect at least 25 goals from him if it all clicks into place.
Chelsea -Didier Drogba (6/1 skybet, expekta.com)
He won last season's title with 20 goals, making his striking 'partner' Shevchenko look ordinary by comparison. Although Chelsea often play the 'Four-Four Diamond-Two' formation (where the wide men tuck in), he received regular service from Robben, Wright-Phillips and the marauding full backs Cole and Bridge -all of whom deliver a good cross. The Ivory Coast striker would probably score another ten if he could prise the ball from Frank 'shoot on sight' Lampard who plays at the front of the aforementioned diamond and takes the team's penalties. The Lampard factor was probably evened up by the rest of the team's resistance in passing to the horribly out of form Shevchenko -preferring instead to play the ball to the feet of the athletic African. Chelsea 's love of the 1-0 scoreline may yet again restrict him to a mere twenty this season. He will miss at least four games in late January/early February to play in the African Nations Cup.
Liverpool -Fernando Torres (16/1 vcbet, Ladbrokes)
Just when the affable Dirk Kuyt thought the field had cleared, up pops young Spanish superstar Fernando Torres. After performing to rave reviews at Athletico Madrid , he has found suitable stage at Anfield. The 23 year-old record signing (£22 m) has scored a remarkable 85 goals in 218 games for the Spanish capital's second team. Whilst he will need at least until Christmas to adjust to the frantic pace of the Premiership (where running is often mistaken for skill), he should have enough turns on the Liverpool team sheet merry-go-round to accumulate a dozen goals in his first season.
Arsenal -Robin Van Persie (bet365, William Hill)
Just who will fill the boots of the mighty Henry, winner of the Golden Boot four times out of the last six seasons? Possible contenders in Julio Baptista (came and went), Emmanuel Adebayor (couldn't put it in the net often enough), Thomas Rosicky (plays too wide) threw their hat into the ring -but found it was thrown back... So it may be left to Robin Van Persie to step up and become the next in an illustrious list of great Gunners strikers that includes the likes of Henry, Wright, Stapleton, MacDonald and George.
If he can get regular service from the inspirational Cesc Fabregas, then legendary status awaits. Around fifteen goals would be a good return in his first season leading the line alongside new boy Eduardo da Silva.
Tottenham -Darren Bent (25/1 extrabet)
What is the world coming to Darren Bent costs more than Thierry Henry? His tally of 14 goals last season was not enough to save a very ordinary Charlton team from relegation, but now he is part of an exciting Spurs side that scored 104 goals in all competitions last term. And who wouldn't want to play alongside the Cantona-like Dimitar Berbatov?
Well Mido for a start, who seemingly couldn't cope with standing in line behind Robbie Keane and Jermaine Defoe to partner the Bulgarian genius and so wants a move.
Just as the rotation system at Anfield has stunted the goalscoring potential of the Liverpool front three, so it could have the same effect at Spurs. Also, it will be interesting to see who places the ball on the penalty spot -Bent had the job at Charlton, but Spurs regular spot-kicker Keane is unlikely to hand over the ball without a struggle.
Expect a solid dozen this season from the pacy Bent.
The Best Of The Rest
The prolific Kevin Philips was the last Golden Boot winner not to play for one of the big four teams (Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal), he had the temerity to score 30 times for the unfashionable Sunderland way back in the 99-00 season, and although Blackburn's Benni McCarthy ( 20/1 extrabet ) pushed Didier Drogba quite close last season, the odds stack up in favour of the big four. In the Blackburn set-up, McCarthy is the team's out and out striker, but he will receive good support up front from both Roque Santa Cruz and Matt Derbyshire, without them ever interfering with his role as Rovers' main goalscoring threat.
Just as Henry's boots need to be filled at Arsenal, so do Alan Shearer's size tens at St James' Park. Although Obefami Martin made a good fist of things in his first season on the Tyne , much is expected of new target man Mark Viduka ( 50/1 extrabet ).
He comes with a proven track record at Celtic, Leeds and nearby neighbours Boro, but does the fire still burn within the belly of the 31 year old Antipodean? A great signing for the Toon, he should elevate them into the top six with 16-18 goals this season.
Like Blackburn 's McCarthy, Everton's Andrew Johnson ( 25/1 betfred, bet365 ) is the focus of his team's attack. The England striker looks the complete player (he heads it well, shoots with both feet and wins plenty of free-kicks/penalties) -if he stays injury-free then he may well be the dark horse in the race for the goalscoring crown. The only question mark is over the level of support he will get from those behind him.
And finally, the enigma that is Nicolas Anelka ( 50/1 extrabet ). The Bolton front man has sublime skill in both feet and pace in abundance, but there are still doubts over his temperament and his advisor brother's inclination to push his sibling through the lucrative transfer window each time it opens. He could score six or twenty-six, who knows? Without the fatherly guidance of Big Sam, it likely to be closer to the lower figure.
So Where Should I Bet And What Odds Should I Take?
With traditional bookmakers, Thierry Henry was as low as 4/1 last season to make it four consecutive Golden Boots, whilst eventual winner Didier Drogba had a season that little relation to his first two for the Blues. This season should be a wide-open race with at least five players having legitimate claims to be slight favourite in the betting. This is good news for the punter -as it means that you should get at least 15/1 about your fancied player (unless its Drogba who doesn't seem to be any value since he will miss the start of the season and four games on African Nations duty).
If you want to have a punt on one of the outsiders then the spreads may be a better option -as they often pay right down to sixth place and you can take your profit at any point during the season, rather than have to wait until next May.
