You're Going Down With The Derby ...
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They say that gaining promotion to the Premiership is like winning the lottery, well just imagine if you lost that winning ticket!
During the Carlos Tevez saga we discovered that the cost of falling out of the world's richest club is approximately fifty million pounds -so no doubt this coming season clubs will be keener than ever to retain their golden ticket.
With the race for the title involving the same four teams for the umpteenth year (actually it's two teams for the third year running as Liverpool will flatter to deceive -regardless of what Rafa Benitez would have us believe), the battle to avoid relegation is a far more interesting and open affair.
Whilst playoff winners Derby appear to be this season's Watford , the other two relegation spots are anyone's guess -well here is where we try and take the guesswork out of deciding who's for the drop.
History has shown that the promoted clubs are always the most likely to make a swift return to the Championship, and as we have already surmised, Derby are in pole position to head straight back down.
There several questions to ask about each team when trying to assess their chance of survival...
How Good Is The Squad?
Does it have depth to it and will it be able to cope with the inevitable injuries that you pick up during the course of the long season. Having two or three star players may not be enough if they are on the treatment table for ten games or more. In the past few seasons the injury curse cost both Bobby Robson and Glen Roeder their jobs at Newcastle -where the patience of the league's most tolerant fans finally ran out.
Will They Score Enough Goals To Survive?
Scoring goals is the key to staying up -it's as simple as that. The three teams that succumbed to the drop last season all were deficient in the 'Goals For' column.
Watford (29), Charlton (34) and Sheffield United (32) also finished with the three poorest goal differences in the Premiership -so it was no surprise that they were languishing near the bottom of the table. Remarkably, Manchester City garnered 42 points from a measly 29 goals, this was mainly due to their miserly defence that conceded only 44 times (ten less that Spurs who finished sixth!).
Are They Up For A Fight?
One of the accusations levelled at the West Ham team (who last season beat the drop by a whisker) was that they just 'weren't up for it' -meaning that the players didn't seem prepared to battle for their Premiership lives. Though if you believe keeper Robert Green, they had a 'spy' in the dressing rooms that cost them all those points -nothing to do with you letting six in against an ordinary Reading side on New Years Day then Robert?
Some clubs, such as Portsmouth and Chelsea have been labelled battling teams in certain areas of the media and it has been well-documented how an uncompromising Bolton side muscled a more talented but less physical Arsenal side out of several games over the last couple of seasons. This season, without the presence of Big Sam, Bolton may need to be similarly robust every Saturday at 3pm (unless they are playing Chelsea or Man Utd who never seem to play at normal times anymore).
Is There A Talismanic Player That Will Inspire Them?
For nearly a decade, Southampton were kept in the top division by the presence of one player the mercurial Matthew Le Tissier. This was a player whose genius on the field would so inspire those around him that they would play above the level of their own expectations and ability. Most recently, Joey Barton and Carlos Tevez kept their respective teams, Manchester City and West Ham in the top flight. Having a truly great player in your team can also keep the fans on your side, as it gives them a chance to applaud and take some comfort from all those away defeats. Little consolation perhaps -but football fans will cling to anything when facing the prospect of away days the following season at Scunthorpe and Colchester ...
Will They Be Able To Spend Their Way Out Of Trouble?
Having deep pockets can be one method to avoid relegation. It used to be much easier before the transfer window came into operation back in 2002-03. A manager used to be able to simply 'pinch an in-form striker from the lower division for a couple of million and ten goals later you were back in mid-table safety. Not so now, when a club has only the month of January to bolster their threadbare squad. On the face of it, spending five million to save yourself fifty seems like a good idea at the time -but take heed from the tale of Bradford City , who, back in 2000-01 decided to spend big in order to retain their top flight status. Players such as Benito Carbone, Neville Southall, Dean Saunders and Dean Windass were brought in at tremendous expense and enormous wages, but were unable to prevent Bradford from plunging into the first division. The financial strain was all too much and City ended up with debts in excess of £30m. This year's Bradford appear to Manchester City , where Eriksson has already splurged £40m of Thaksin Shinawatra's retirement fund on a group of relative unknowns. Haven't Blues fans suffered enough already?
The Contenders
With the Premiership neatly separating into the haves and have nots, the bottom of the table almost picks itself these days. Take out the annual shooting star (last year it was Reading) and you can choose the most probable contenders for relegation with too much difficulty:
Derby (6/11 expekt.com) -They appear ill equipped to cope with their first season back. The squad looks paper-thin and if Rams fans think that new signing Robert Earnshaw is going to save them then perhaps they also believe that the moon is made of cheese, eh Grommit?
Their summer spending of £5.25m is about the same as John Terry's wages, maybe manager Billy Davies has already got his eyes on Gareth Southgate's job at Boro and was house hunting in the North East instead of scouting for talent.
Prediction : Bottom, enough said.
Wigan (5/4 bet365, bluesq) -Just as Derby have pinned all their hopes on Earnshaw, so Wigan Athletic are investing their immediate future in the £5.3m recruit Jason Koumas. Let's hope that his goals will cancel out the one that fellow new boy Titus Bramble gives away...
Paul Jewell has been a messiahanic figure in the last few seasons and his lost will be felt in the same way that Charlton missed Curbishley -and so were relegated in the first season without him. With Lee McCulloch and Leighton Baines both on their way, it seems like they are deserting the sinking ship.
Prediction : Bottom three.
Fulham (2/1 bluesq) -They have really pushed the boat out at Craven Cottage, with new manager Lawrie Sanchez being allowed to spend more than £20m of Mr Al Fayed's fortune.
Sure there are some solid players, Aaron Hughes, Steven Davis, Diomansy Kamara and the enigmatic Northern Irishman David Healy who Sanchez knows very well -but can he make then gel as a team? The solid defender Chris Baird and tricky winger Lee Cook are both excellent acquisitions, but are they enough to ensure survival for a team that has been on the slide for the last two seasons? A fit-again Jimmy Bullard may be the difference between 18 th and 17 th place and that £50m treasure chest.
Prediction : Two away wins in two seasons suggests they're going down.
Sunderland (4/1 totesport, skybet) -Surely the bubble has to burst for Roy Keane sometime soon? His last to first miracle in the Championship was one of which his old manager Brian Clough would have been proud, history suggests that keeping a promoted side in the Premiership would be an achievement of similar proportions. Keane has given Kieran Richardson his own stage to showcase his England credentials and Michael Chopra the chance to prove that his stint at Newcastle was just a blip in his goalscoring career. Other signings include up and coming defenders Greg Halford and Paul McShane, so they should be reasonably solid at the back -but the old question persists, will they score enough goals?
Prediction : The new quiet Keano will inspire them to survival.
Birmingham (6/5 extrabet) -Another of the promoted sides, so history is against them already. Steve Bruce's six-year tenure at Saint Andrew's has been a real rollercoaster ride -and this season may be no exception! He has brought in the homesick Garry O'Connor from Lokomotiv Moscow -but he may not notice any difference in a decaying city full of strange accents and alcoholics... Like last season, they were neck and neck with rivals Sunderland -now wouldn't you like to see a stand up brawl between the two respective managers? At last, two managers who could challenge Martin Jol to a fight!
Prediction : Just enough quality to avoid the drop.
Bolton (7/1 totesport) -Yet again a club that will be suffering from new manager syndrome. With Big Sam now plying his trade at the Toon, Little Sammy has an awfully big adventure ahead of him this season. Having spent less than £1.5m in the close season, Sammy Lee is relying on unknown foreign imports and his incumbent squad to scale the dizzy heights of the Premiership. But the loss of Henrik Pedersen and Tal Ben Haim, the ageing bones of Gary Speed and Kevin Davies, and the sulkiness of Nicolas Anelka may add up to season of turmoil at the Reebok Stadium.
Prediction : There are too many worse teams for them to go down.
Middlesbrough (11/2 stan james) -Gareth Southgate is on borrowed time according to many Boro fans, just two away wins last season saw to that. The loss of Mark Viduka to local rivals Newcastle my be the final nail in the coffin for the toothy one, as Arsenal reject Jeremie Aliadiere (Wenger never lets the good ones get away) is unlikely to fill the boots of one of the Premiership's most reliable marksmen. If Yakubu doesn't weigh in with at least fifteen goals this term then they're done for.
Prediction : A solid defence will allow them to stay in the money.
How Many Points Will They Need?
There appears to be so much competition this season that forty points should be good enough to ensure survival -the only year in recent times that it hasn't was 2002-03 when a massive 43 points was required for safety. It's doubtful whether Derby and Wigan will even come close to that total and if any other of the named teams has a bad start then they will be hot favourites to join them.
On the managerial merry-go-round only Roy Keane looks certain to still be in charge at the end of this coming season -all the other managers will have to rely on keeping their respective sides in the top flight.
Whoever does eventually go down, you can bet your life that there will be some hard luck story and an endless list of excuses as to why, oh and a P45 for the manager...
