For every major sporting event, the traders at Sporting Index provide us with a preview called Trading Talk -this analyses all the relevant factors that may affect how you spread bet!
Rather than keep all this vital traders' room info to ourselves, we are going to share it with you on our Trading Talk page -this includes Champions League, Prem & FA Cup football, Rugby, Test Match & ODI Cricket, race meetings, grand slam tennis and major golf tournaments.
Trading Talk - Cheltenham Day One
The roar of the tapes going up at the start of the Supreme Novices' is enough to make the hairs on the back of your neck stand on end, but it is exactly the same for spread bettors sat at home on their laptops. Those looking to find the profile of the winner of the first race should normally focus on the other side of the Irish Sea, as seven of the last nine winners have been trained in Ireland. Dunguib will be one of the hottest favourites on the Sporting Index win index during the entire week and there will be plenty of spread bettors looking to both buy and sell his spread. One worry for his fans - and those selling meeting SPs - is that you have to go back six years for the last successful favourite in this race. Since then there has been a 20/1 and 40/1 winner so the spread betting public buying SPs will be hoping Tuesday starts with a bang - by a long shot scooting clear.
Winning distances is another big spread betting market during the four days and there has only been one winner come more than 3 lengths clear in the past six runnings. That was Arcalis at 20/1 in 2005, who romped home by 6 lengths, but the most common winning distance in the past decade has been a neck which has happened in four of the past eight races.
The Arkle is slightly different, as although winning distance spread sellers will have been delighted with last year's short-head margin, Tidal Bay bounded clear by 13 lengths the previous year. This is the championship for 2 mile novice chasers and spread bettors up and down the land will be trying to unearth next year's Champion Chase winner. It has gone to a seven-year-old in four of the past five runnings and French-bred horses have won seven of the last 15 renewals. Spread bettors selling SPs will be pleased to hear that only one favourite has won since 2002, but they won't be quite as pleased when they realise that all of the last nine winners have been single-figure prices.
The highlight of the opening day's card is the Champion Hurdle, a race which was won by 22/1 shot Punjabi 12 months ago - the second biggest priced winner in the past 20 years. He beat Celestial Halo by just a neck that day so it showed how well winning distance spread sellers were doing after the first few races last year. However, it's not always such a tight contest and you only have to go back to Rooster Booster in 2003 for an 11-length winning distance.
Punjabi was beaten in his prep race last year, which is usually a bad sign for spread bettors playing the race win index, as 22 of the past 26 winners had all won their race immediately before the Champion Hurdle. He was the second English-trained horse to win in the past two years, but prior to that Ireland had taken the previous four crowns so spread punters will have to decide which nation they are going to put their faith in this time around.
Trading Talk - Cheltenham Day Two
The format for the second day of the Cheltenham Festival changed last year when the National Hunt Chase was moved to the first race of the day, but the first really big spread betting heat will be the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle. Those playing the jockey and trainer index markets on the spreads will undoubtedly look at the Willie Mullins-trained and Ruby Walsh-ridden Quel Esprit. The duo have won the last two renewals, but those spread bettors looking to be against them will be happy to learn that no jockey or trainer has ever won this race three years in a row since it was first run in 1971.
Many spread bettors like to look at the trends when it comes to the big races and all of the last ten winners have been aged five or six. The Irish have dominated in recent years, winning four of the past seven renewals, and spread SP sellers absolutely loved this event in the late 1990's when all four short-priced favourites from 1997 to 2000 were successful. However, last year's winner, Mikael D'Haguenet, was the first market leader to win since then and there have been four double-priced victories in the 'Noughties'.
The Willie Mullins-Ruby Walsh road show burst further into life in last year's RSA Chase when Cooldine became the easiest winner of the race since Looks Like Trouble in 1999. The seven-year-old romped home 16 lengths clear of his pursuers and became the eighth seven-year-old to win the race in the last decade. Spread sellers of SP's have enjoyed this race in recent years, with the last three favourites obliging, but it is worth bearing in mind that there have been 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 33/1 winners in the past ten years.
Nicky Henderson holds a very strong hand and Long Run looks likely to go off at the head of the Sporting Index win index. He's been tremendously impressive since coming over from France, winning over both 2 and 3 miles. However, spread bettors looking to get him beat will be greatly encouraged that only one five-year-old has won this race since 1950.
Paul Nicholls was champion trainer at the Cheltenham Festival again last year and there will be many spread bettors following him in again this time around. His first big chance is probably with Master Minded in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, who will be attempting to make history by becoming only the second horse ever to win this race three times.
There have only been three successful favourites in the past decade, but although that should give SP spread buyers a reason to be cheerful, 26 of the last 28 winners have been single figure prices. The winning distance market is an interesting one for spread bettors as in recent years it has generally been won by a wide margin. Master Minded pulverised the field by 19 lengths two years ago and five of the past seven winners have won by 7 lengths or more.
Trading Talk - South Africa 2010 World Cup Preview
Spread bettors up and down the country are united in their anticipation for the 2010 World Cup. Punters are no doubt itching to get stuck in on Sporting Index's myriad spread markets on every single game as well as the tournament as a whole. To whet the appetite, the firm have already got a number of spread markets live, including the outright index which awards 100pts to the tournament winner, 75pts to the runner-up, 50pts to the losing semi-finalists, 25pts to the losing quarter-finalists and 10pts for reaching the last 16.
Spain are favourites according to their outright spread of 43-46pts and buyers will hope that the side can keep star strikers Fernando Torres and David Villa fit. Sellers will be hoping that Vincente del Bosque's side are unable to emulate France and win consecutive major international tournaments, following up their 2008 European Championships triumph. Spread sellers will also be pleased that no European team has ever lifted the trophy outside their own continent. Second favourites Brazil, currently at 40-43pts on the outright index spread, have had no such problems. The Samba Kings have claimed World football's top prize in Europe and Asia as well as North, Central and South America. Spread buyers will hope Dunga's side can add another with victory in Africa.
Sporting Index have also made their eight outright group markets live this far in advance of the tournament allowing spread punters to challenge their traders' predictions on which teams will escape from the three-game group stage to the last 16 knockout. In these spread markets, 25pts are awarded to the group winner, 10pts to the runner-up and 5pts to third place, and few would dispute the index spreads assigned to most teams. There are a number of tough groups though and spread buyers and sellers will be relying on these for the best returns. Group A features the hosts South Africa alongside Mexico and France. With an index spread of 15-16.5pts, Les Bleus are favourites to win the group, but spread sellers will remember a disastrous attempt at the defence of their crown in 2002, when they finished bottom of their group. Mexico, with a spread of 8.5-10pts, have reached the knockout stages in each of the last four tournaments.
Brazil share the best candidate for 'group of death', Group G, with North Korea (0.5-2pts), Ivory Coast (9.5-11pts) and Portugal (10-11.5pts). Assuming Brazil are most likely to top the group, spread buyers and sellers are fairly evenly split on the other group members.
In England at least, the World Cup can hardly get mentioned without the image of a white-shirted captain (whoever it may be) flitting across spread bettors' minds for the briefest of moments. Sellers of Capello's side's outright spread at 39 hope the team will again get no further than the quarter-final stage - the round which they have reached in the previous two competitions. Sporting Index are also offering a number of England tournament specials to satisfy patriotic (or otherwise) spread punters including spreads on the total number of goals the team will score, currently at 10.3-11, and their number of wins, set at 3.4-3.7.
Trading Talk - South Africa 2010 Group A preview
Group A is the only one to contain two previous World Cup winners, France (1998) and Uruguay (1930 and 1950). Mexico's best run in the finals saw them reach the quarter-finals in 1970 and 1986, which means that South Africa face a tough task if they're to escape Group A.
France are favourites on the Group A Index spread (25pts to the winner, 10pts to runner-up and 5pts to third-place), currently at 15-16.5pts. Although the French are ranked seventh in the Fifa World Rankings, buyers of their group win index will be concerned with their current form. Qualification for South Africa came by an already infamous goal to get past the Irish and sellers of France's group index will also have noted that the side recently failed to score against the Spanish. Any spread punters who like to bet on Sporting Index's total goals markets should note that during 2009 Les Bleus played seven consecutive matches in which neither team managed to score more than one goal.
Mexico were impressive in 2009, winning eight, drawing twice and losing just once. Buyers of their group index at 10 will hope they can carry the same form into the finals. An strong qualification record will offer some encouragement to buyers of Mexico's outright and group spreads as from 20 qualifying matches the side won 11, drew three and lost six. Javier Aguirre's side are appearing in the finals for the fifth time in a row, and buyers of their group index spread will be pleased to know they have made the last 16 in their last four World Cup appearances. But the side look set to play 37-year-old Blanco as their main forward, so buyers of their outright win index (100pts to the tournament winner, 75pts to the runner-up, 50pts to the losing semi-finalists, 25pts to the losing quarter-finalists and 10pts for reaching the last 16) must be wary of his age and fitness as the tournament progresses. The striker does have 37 goals for his country however.
The Uruguayans played 12 internationals in 2009, winning seven of them, losing six, and drawing seven. Buyers of their outright win index spread will have been concerned that the team only just secured their trip to South Africa after beating Costa Rica in a playoff. A further worry for spread buyers is that since 1966, when Uruguay reached the quarter-final stage, they have failed to rediscover their early World Cup dominance. The Uruguayans have only made two of the previous five finals and they failed to progress beyond their group on their last appearance in 2002.
Buyers of their group A index at 7 will be concerned that South Africa were victorious just five times in their 18 matches throughout 2009. Other punters hoping to buy Bafana Bafana's outright win index at 9 will wish that South Korea's efforts in 2002 - when the then hosts reached the semis - can inspire the hosts to outperform their other group members. Supporters of South Africa on the spreads will also remember the decent performances in the Confederations Cup, where the side reached the semi-finals to finish fourth overall.
Trading Talk - Six Nations Week 3
After the success of last year's Friday evening kick-off, Wales and France fans are treated to a repeat at the Millennium Stadium this year. Spread bettors can also look forward to the match with those having bought France's outright index, currently at 52-55pts (60pts to the winner, 40pts for second, 20pts for third, 10pts for fourth and 5pts for fifth) eager for the visitors to take one step closer to the trophy.
These countries have each won two Grand Slams since the Five Nations became six, and buyers of France's win index spread might be interested to know that both of the nation's faultless Championships, in 2002 and 2004, came with victory in Cardiff. Spread buyers of total points for the match will notice the propensity for high scores in this fixture. In the last ten meetings, the lowest points tally is 37, the highest an incredible 78 points in 2001.
Sporting Index's traders will be pleased that the Championship so far has gone mainly to form, although sellers of the England/Italy supremacy spread last weekend profited from a closer than expected score. The Red Rose will be back in action at Twickenham and Sporting Index's traders as well as spread bettors know that their match against Ireland could go either way. Martin Johnson's side were very close to denying the Boys in Green a first Grand Slam since 1948 at Croke Park last year - the margin of victory for Declan Kidney's side was a single point. Sellers of the total match points spread will remember the game well, as it was tied at 3-3 at the halfway stage, before finishing 14-13 for a total of 27 - still a good result for spread sellers.
Buyers of Ireland's win index (25pts for a win plus points scored by team) will be impressed that they have actually had the better of England twice out of their last three trips to Twickenham, winning in both 2004 and 2006. In fact, buyers of England's supremacy spread may be shocked to learn that since England's Grand Slam in 2003, the year they also lifted the World Cup in Australia, Ireland have beaten England on five out of six meetings at all venues. The same spread punters may also find it surprising that prior to this year, Ireland were the most successful side in the Six Nations, jointly with France, having won 36 out of 50 matches since Italy joined the fold.
Spread bettors who prefer to base their rugby union spread bets based on the more statistical spreads may have been dismayed by Jonny Wilkinson's off-colour kicking against Italy. He still managed to kick 113m, but that will mean little to those who bought the spread at 165m. He will be keen to get back on track in his next game and with a more familiar ball on the kicking tee buyers of the kicking metres spread might not be too concerned. Others may prefer to look at buying the total tries spread as although only two were scored in the low scoring encounter last year, the previous three match-ups saw four, five and five touchdowns.
Trading Talk - Champions League Preview
After what always feels like an eternity, the Champions League break is almost over and spread bettors can start preparing for one of the most eagerly anticipated knockout stages in several years. Spread punters will be especially looking forward to the Anglo-Italian battles and recent history will point towards further English dominance. Buyers of United's outright spread currently at 37-40pts (winner earns 100pts, runner-up 75pts, losing semi-finalist 50pts etc), will be pleased to know that over the last two years English teams have had the better of the two-legged games against Italian teams. Wednesday's game sees Arsenal presented with a tough game against Porto, a side that beat them 2-0 in last season's group stages.
Buyers of Milan's outright tournament index spread at 24, will know that they have beaten United on their four previous visits. Furthermore, Milan have come out on top each time the clubs have met over two legs in Europe's premier competition. The Rossoneri recorded two 1-0 victories in their meeting in 2004/05, with Hernan Crespo scoring both. Spread sellers of the Man Utd / AC Milan qualifying match bet at 4pts (10pts for qualifying, 3pts per goal won by) will also remember the two-legged win in 2007 over United.
United's win index spread buyers will be aware that since their 3-0 loss at the San Siro in 2007 United have not lost in three trips to Italy - including a goalless draw on the way to knocking-out Jose Mourinho's Inter in last season's first knockout round. The same spread buyers will also argue that Milan's home form in the group stages was far from impressive. The Rossoneri failed to pick up a win in any of their three home games, including a loss to FC Zurich. Another concern for buyers of Milan's supremacy spread will be that they did not manage a win in their last three Champions League matches. Sellers of the supremacy spread will have been encouraged with United's results away from Old Trafford - seeing as they have not lost an away tie in the Champions League since the 2007 season.
Spread punters that fancy the Gunners' chances at Porto will have noted that the Portuguese side have lost their last two home games against English opponents. Buyers of the Gunner's outright Championship index spread, currently at 37-40pts, will have also taken into account that the last two times the sides met it was 0-0 in Porto and 2-0 to Arsenal in North London. Before United's 1-0 victory last season and Chelsea's 1-0 victory in November, Porto had won their previous eleven games against English sides. Those who enjoy a spread bet on the total goals market should note that Porto conceded just three in the group stages, the fewest in their group, while Arsenal only conceded five. A positive for goal spread buyers is that Arsenal's 4-0 victory is Porto's joint-heaviest defeat in the competition to date.
Before the Gunners played Porto, they had faced Portuguese opposition only once before in Europe. Punters hoping to challenge Arsenal on the spreads will be pleased to learn they lost to Benfica in the 1991/92 the European Champion Clubs' Cup. Arsenal have not caused referees too much trouble during the groups stages and sellers of the bookings index spread will be pleased to see that they only picked up eight yellows from their six group games.
