Political Spread Betting

Election Result - Following a disappointing result for the Tories, where they failed to win an overall majority -they formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. They fell around 12 seats short of where most market makers thought they would be. The big losers were the Lib Dems, who looked nailed on to reach at least 75 seats.

What other salient factors have an effect upon the house of commons seats spread?

Personnel Changes -A resignation or defection from the front bench can mean an unexpected reshuffle for a party leader -this should mean that the party is weakened and drops down in the opinion polls. The only exception is when the leader is seen to be acting strongly by banishing a rebel. A leadership challenge will have a dramatic effect.

Scandals -A good scandal comes along several times each year -depending on how serious the 'charge' and whether it is a resigning issue it can effect the polls. A minister leaving his post can cause a five seat drop for the incumbent government.

By-Elections -The recent win by Labour in the Glenrothes by-election was a real shot in the arm for the government, especially as the SNP were big favourites to gain the seat. That win in Scotland saw a four point rise in the Sporting Index seats spread for Labour.

Economic Factors -Main ones are the interest rate, government borrowing, inflation, unemployment figures, balance of payments, currencies and the stock market (FTSE). Any positive sets of figures will help the government and although the recent credit crunch should have seen Labour down to below 200 seats -there is a lower ceiling (220) to just how low the Labour spread can go (mainly due to geographical factors).

Major Stories -Depending on how a party or political leader responds to a story such a disaster or crisis can have an effect on the seats spread. Dealing successfully with the threats of terrorism early on in his premiership was a real boost for Gordon Brown and the Labour party seats spread.

What Can We Learn From History? -Much can be learned from the election results of the past. The next general election might most resemble the 1992 contest -although the Liberals (as Mr Brown loves to call them) would hope to collect another 30 seats from the haemorrhaging Labour party.

Where Can I Find Coverage On Political Betting? -The website politicalbetting.com is written by former BBC corresponent & academic MIchael Smithson and is packed full of excellent articles, comment and background info. If there's any sort of move in the spread market -then you can find out why on this site.